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Putin’s Predictabilities

American Greatness: 'What do we learn about Putin’s opportunistic foreign policy?

'Pumping lots of oil and lowering the world price of it makes Putin worry about insolvency rather than invasion and ensure the West is less dependent on him.

'When the United States appeases Putin and is wracked by internal dissension and social turmoil, Putin pounces. Prod NATO to bolster their defenses and Germany to stop enriching Putin—and then Russia is circumspect rather than recklessly aggressive. Speaking softly while carrying a club rather than loudly with a twig better persuades Putin not to try something dangerous.

'To the degree America embraces all four of the strategies above, Putin will likely not attack anyone. If we at least embrace one or two of the above protocols, he may still stay put. But if we ignore all of these time-proven antidotes, then we can almost guarantee that Putin will either mobilize against or actually invade a former Soviet republic. Biden has managed to violate all four principles. Is it then any surprise that a predictably opportunistic dictator has massed hundreds of thousands of troops on Ukraine’s borders?'

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