In Ontario, a party only needs 37% to win, meaning Ford is almost certainly going to win

National Post: 'A political party needs only about 37 per cent of the vote to get a parliamentary majority in Ontario. This means that a majority of Ontarians “can wake up every morning and dislike what you do and you can still win a majority,” said John Wright, a veteran pollster and executive vice president of Maru Public Opinion.

'Doug Ford is a case in point. In the year after he became premier in 2018, Ford’s approval numbers dropped to 23 because of the caustic tone of his early government, all partisan retribution, back-scratching, and “vindictive tantrums,” Wright said.

'But he changed his tune along with his controversial chief of staff. He aimed for a more conciliatory tone and a less partisan stance toward the federal Liberals. This decision, as much as the pandemic, may have set Ford’s electoral fortunes onto the path that has brought him to Election Day 2022, with polling that puts his party’s support above the majority threshold.'